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Copying across my response from pepipoo...

Seems to me you had plenty of room to escape into that left hand lane. It's only if you are forced to stop in the box by stationary vehicles that you can be punished.

Suggest drafting representations along the following lines. The discount period seems already to have expired, in which case there's no incentive for you not to take this all the way to the tribunal if TFL reject (which they invariably will).

Dear TFL

I received your PCN ref XXXXXXXXX in respect of stopping in a box junction.

The Highway Code makes clear that you must not enter a box junction unless your exit is clear. The video footage you have supplied clearly shows my chosen exit lane is clear and available for me to take. In these circumstances, I am unsure why you have seen fit to issue me a PCN.

I also understand the specific test set out in the relevant legislation is whether I caused my vehicle to enter the box junction so that it had to stop in the box due to the presence of stationary vehicles. Clearly I did stop my vehicle in the box, but in my view the video footage is also clear that I did not have to stop where I did. I could have continued into my chosen exit lane unimpeded had I wished to.

In these circumstances I look forward to confirmation that you have cancelled this erroneous PCN.

Yours faithfully,

Thank you both.

I was trying to go to the left most lane, not the lane where the bus stop. I indeed had to stop because of the bus, and I could have manoeuvre to get into my lane, but it would have required me going on reverse. It felt safer at the time to just wait for the traffic light to change rather than reversing, particularly as I had no visibility over the road I had just come from.

Would you mention anything about the bus invading the left most lane, the size of the box or the roadworks?

Seems I'm the only one who thinks the car could get past!  I'll do some measurements on Google maps when I get home.

It did stop because of stationary vehicles, but my point is that it didn't have to.

Measuring the lane width on GoogleMaps suggests they are 2.9 - 3.0 metres wide.  The car in question is a VW - not sure the precise model (Tiguan?) but it's likely to be no more than 1.95 metres wide (including mirrors on the right hand side).  In which case only two-thirds of the lane was needed to get past the bus.  It looks to me like the rear wheel of the bus is on the lane marker, it is at a slight angle so the rear of the bus would be protruding into the left hand lane but not by enough to take up a third of it in my opinion.

I still think the driver could have completed the manoeuvre if they had been minded to.  That they didn't can only be out of extreme caution/nervousness/misjudgement, not from being blocked in which is the legal test.  Updated draft as follows:

Dear TFL

I received your PCN ref XXXXXXXXX in respect of stopping in a box junction.

The Highway Code makes clear that you must not enter a box junction unless your exit is clear. The video footage you have supplied clearly shows my chosen exit lane (the lane to the left of the bus) is clear and available for me to take and consequently I do not believe a contravention has occurred.

There are two exit lanes available and only one vehicle in front of me (the bus) when I commit to entering the box junction.  The bus takes the right hand lane but in so doing leaves its rear left wheel on the lane divider, and with the bus at a slight angle its rear is straddling the two lanes by a small margin.  However by the time it comes to a complete halt the incursion into the left lane is relatively minor and the video footage shows a big enough gap for me to pass through (after the light turns green and I pass through the junction, you can see there is plenty of spare width on either side of my car relative to the lane).

I believe the video footage is clear that I could have passed by the bus into the vacant exit but, for completeness, I have also analysed the distance using Google Maps.  The lane width is between 2.9 metres and 3.0 metres and the width of my vehicle is only Xm.  Consequently the bus would have had to incurred into my exit lane by at least a third of the lane width to leave my chosen exit unavailable and in my view the video evidence shows this not to be the case.  If you see fit to reject these representations please explain on what basis you disagree.

I also understand the specific test set out in the relevant legislation is whether I caused my vehicle to enter the box junction so that it had [my emphasis] to stop in the box due to the presence of stationary vehicles. Clearly I did stop my vehicle in the box, but in my view the video footage is also clear that I did not have to stop where I did. I could have continued into my chosen exit lane unimpeded had I been minded to.  That I didn't is regretable but not punishable in these circumstances.  My reasons for stopping where I did are that there was a red light ahead and so I did not see any advantage in making a narrow pass of the bus, and I was also aware of the moped behind me considering undertaking me.  The roadworks on the far side of the junction have effectively ceased to make this junction a crossroads and as such I knew that in stopping where I did I would not be blocking the traffic flow so it seemed the best course of action at the time.

In these circumstances I look forward to confirmation that you have cancelled this PCN.

Yours faithfully,

No problem.

It's always good to get a consensus view so if you can wait a little longer I'd be inclined to see if others are happy with the revised draft or have any further comments/suggestions.

Hopefully you spotted I left an "X" in the draft for you to substitute with the true width.

My take is that you intended to take the left hand lane, were steering to the left hand lane but felt compelled to stop due to a moped on the inside who seemed to be undertaking or about to.
The stop was solely so as to avoid an accident and possibly wiping out a rider.
It should be noted that the moped was not stationary when I stopped so one leg of the contravention, ie stopping due to stationary traffic is not complete.

I would not mention the bus unless it is to dismiss it.... the bus was stationary but that was not the reason for the stop.